Why Tennessee Wins Taxslayer Bowl
The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes today in the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida. Iowa has a slight statistical edge in most categories, but the teams are fairly evenly matched. Contrasting styles yes, but still pretty evenly matched. Here is why I think Tennessee wins.
The Vols have not won a bowl game since Phillip Fulmer’s 2007 team beat Wisconsin on January 1st, 2008. That is unbelievable to me to think it has been that long. Tennessee wants this one bad. As we have seen in many of the games this season, the team that wants it the most seems to win. The Vols want to showcase their individual talent nationally. They want to prove the Tennessee Volunteer brand is and will be relevant again in College Football.
Iowa started the season at 6-1. They had big plans at that point for New Years Day Bowls. The Taxslayer Bowl was not in their minds. The Hawkeyes lost 4 of their last 5 games. These losses did come to very good football teams. Iowa lost by 2 to a Wisconsin team that just beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl. They also lost by 3 to a very good Nebraska team the week after the Wisconsin loss. Iowa fans have begun grumbling over their head coach during the latter part of the season. There is not a lot of good feelings about getting a Taxslayer Bowl birth. Iowa did not come close to selling out its’ allotment of tickets.
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On the other hand Tennessee started the season with a 3-5 record. The Vols tough early season schedule proved too much for the young team and lost to top tier teams Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. The Vols were up against the ropes to become bowl eligible. The Vols did what they had to do and won 3 of their last 4. Momentum is on the Vols side. Tennessee fought to get here. Iowa floundered to get here.
As mentioned these teams are fairly evenly matched. Iowa leads in three of the four major statistical areas. Offensively the Hawkeyes rank 54th to Tennessee’s 67th ranking in passing yardage per game. Iowa averages 242 yards to the Vols 228 per game. The Hawkeyes are 74th in the country in rushing averaging 156 sledgehammering yards per game. The Vols are a ways back at 103rd getting just 135 yards per game. Iowa definitely has an advantage on the offensive line as most of these guys are juniors and seniors. They also have an Outland Award winner.
As for the Points For category Iowa ranks 70th scoring at a clip of 28.3 points per game. Tennessee is 75th averaging 27.6 points per game.
On the defensive side Tennessee has a very slight edge. The Vols ranked 35th in the country in scoring defense giving up 23.9 points per game. Iowa was right behind one place at 36th giving up 24 points per game.
Looking at these stats, I am about to talk myself out of thinking the Vols will win today. But I do think Tennessee will win a close one.
The Vols will play fast today. The ability of Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs to run the ball effectively will put a lot of pressure on Iowa today. If Dobbs and Jalen Hurd are successful in the run game, the Hawkeye secondary will have trouble with Tennessee’s speedy receivers. I also look for Pig Howard and Von Pearson to get a few carries on some jet sweeps today that will be effective.
The receivers will go up against a decent, but not great secondary. The Vols are without Jason Croom, Marquez North and Josh Smith. They still have plenty of firepower with Josh Malone, Von Pearson and Pig Howard. This group will have to play big today.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Vols will have to withstand the pounding of Iowa’s run game. They are big up front, and they are good. At left tackle the Hawkeyes boast the Outland Trophy winner Brandon Scherff. He will go up against Tennessee freshman phenom Derek Barnett in what will be the best match up in the Taxslayer Bowl. I look forward to watching this one.
Iowa can throw the ball as well. They will use two quarterback’s today. Jake Rudock will start for the Hawkeyes. He is a very steady, cerebral type of quarterback. He doesn’t turn the ball over a lot. Sophomore C.J. Beathard. Beathard played at BGA in Franklin, Tennessee which is about 2 miles from where I am writing today. He is more of a gunslinger, and can hurt defenses with his arm. However, Cam Sutton and the Tennessee secondary will blanket these receivers and make it tough on whoever is throwing the ball. Now if Iowa gets the running game going and the Vols have to commit a safety to stop the run, all bets are off. That is what Iowa hopes happens. I don’t think it will.
I think Tennessee will play well today. The positive momentum and the “we want to be here” mentality will give the Vols an edge. Butch Jones has brought this team to Jacksonville to win a bowl game, not to enjoy a bowl game. We will see at 2:30 this afternoon.