Tennessee Vols Coaching Search: Dan Mullen Compared To Rest Of SEC West

Is Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen the answer for the Tennessee Vols?

A lot of folks don’t like the idea of Dan Mullen coaching the Tennessee Vols in 2018.

Based on a quick glance at the numbers, I get it.

Mullen has never beat Alabama, and he’s only reached 10 wins once during his time at Mississippi State.

But when you dig into the numbers, I think you see that Mullen is a much better option than you realize.

I think we all agree that you can’t compete for national championships without elite talent. Alabama’s had the number one recruiting class for the last seven years. They wouldn’t be the juggernaut they are without those recruiting classes.

If Nick Saban was averaging the 15th best recruiting class in the nation, there’s no way Alabama would have the success they’ve had. Good coaching matters. But so does talent.

I decided to take a look at recent coaches in the SEC West and how their overall record coincides with how they’ve recruited. I also took a look a the situation they inherited (I included Butch Jones just for fun).

Below are recent coaches from the SEC West, their winning percentage while at their current (or last) job, their averaging recruiting ranking during their time at the school listed, and the average recruiting ranking for the four years prior to their arrival.

Nick Saban (Alabama) — 86% — 2 — 22

Les Miles (LSU) — 77% — 6 — 8

Gus Malzahn (Auburn) — 68% — 8 — 11

Bret Bielema (Arkansas) — 47% — 24 — 27

Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) — 67% — 12 — 23

Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss) — 60% — 18 — 23 

Dan Mullen (Mississippi State) — 60% — 27 — 39

Butch Jones (Tennessee) — 55% — 13 — 12

Ok, so the first thing I think you notice is that Saban and Les Miles have had way more success than the rest of the SEC. But they also clearly recruit the best.

(Also, Hugh Freeze’s recruiting ranking was pulled down because of his first recruiting class, ranked 48th, at Ole Miss. He also had two top ten classes.)

It’s clear that Mullen came into the worst situation of all these coaches when he was hired at Mississippi State. Mullen didn’t have a lot of talent with the Bulldogs compared to what his fellow coaches inherited.

Mississippi State is probably one of the hardest places in the country to win. It’s at the bottom of the pecking order in the SEC West, the recruiting grounds aren’t very fertile (plus Alabama is next door), and the schedule is brutal.

I think it’s pretty impressive that Mullen has won 60% his games while playing in the division that features a couple of teams that have won over half the national championships since 2009.

If you give Dan Mullen the situation that Butch Jones had at Tennessee, with those incredible facilities, then I think his winning percentage is easily in the 75% range, if not better.

Mullen would excel at Tennessee in the SEC East. He would still have to play Alabama every year, but he would also be playing teams that he’s beat on various occasions, with less talent, on a rotating basis.

The SEC East schedule is easier than the SEC West schedule. That’s been especially true during Mullen’s time in the division.

I think what Mullen has accomplished at Mississippi State is similar to what James Franklin accomplished at Vanderbilt.

Dan Mullen, with top 10-15 classes (in a weaker division), would allow Tennessee to consistently compete for the SEC East championship.

Next: Vols Coaching Search Hot Board

If the Vols can’t land Gary Patterson or Scott Frost (I’m a big believer in him), or a wildcard name like Chris Petersen/James Franklin, then Mullen has to be next on their list.