Tennessee Vols: What Should We Expect In Year One Of Jeremy Pruitt Era?

The Tennessee Vols are hoping to turn the program around with the hiring of Jeremy Pruitt.

A lot of you will probably say it’s way too early to contemplate how the 2018 season will unfold for the Tennessee Vols.

But I don’t think it’s ever too early.

We know what kind of talent is on the Vols’ roster, and we know Jeremy Prutit is going to attempt to sign some JuCo players to shore up the offensive and defensive line.

And we also know the challenge Tennessee’s 2018 schedule presents, which means we can come up with some reasonable expectations for the Volunteers.

Year one of a first time head coach is one of the hardest scenarios to predict. There are so many factors that go into whether or not the program is successful (on paper) in the first year.

Some coaches, like Kirby Smart and Lincoln Riley, take over good situations in their first year, making the transition a bit easier.

Other coaches, like Scott Frost and Chad Morris, have to implement an entirely new culture, which can take time.

There’s no manual that tells us how long it should take a coach to turn a program around — each situation is unique. It took Frost one full season to get UCF firing on all cylinders, while it took Chad Morris nearly three seasons to turn around a destitute SMU program.

A great example of the growing pains that can be felt while building an elite program is the 2007 Alabama team.

In Nick Saban’s first year at Alabama, the Crimson Tide went 7-6.

But that 7-6 season could’ve easily looked a lot different. All of their losses came by 7 points or less (including the brutal home loss to Louisiana-Monroe).

Saban had to change the culture at Alabama, and it didn’t happen overnight. He had to teach his team how to finish games. In 2008, Alabama nearly ran the table, by turning those close losses into close wins (Bama beat Kentucky by only 3 points in Tuscaloosa that season).

I expect Pruitt, who was with Saban in 2007 at Alabama, to apply some of the same methods at Tennessee that he learned from Saban.

So what kind of results should we expect in year one?

Tennessee’s schedule is tough, but it’s still nothing like what Butch Jones faced in 2013.

In 2013, the Vols played seven ranked teams, including 5 that were ranked in the top ten (South Carolina was ranked 11th and Florida was ranked 19th at the time they played). The Auburn team that blew out Tennessee in 2013 went on to play for the national championship.

The Vols’ schedule in 2018 is similar (they play at Auburn), but it’s not quite as tough. Tennessee opens the season against West Virginia in Charlotte, and the Missouri and Vanderbilt teams they play in 2018 won’t be nearly as tough as the ones they played in 2013 (Missouri was ranked 10th).

Tennessee has three “gimme” games on the schedule in 2018 (ETSU, UTEP and Charlotte) and three fairly winnable conference games (Vanderbilt, Missouri and Kentucky). They have a couple of toss up games (West Virginia and South Carolina), and then three conference games they won’t be expected to win (Florida, Georgia and Auburn), followed by their annual matchup against Alabama.

If the Vols come through that gauntlet with a 6-6 record (a bowl win would be nice to make the record look better), I think fans would be fairly happy.

But what’s more important than the final record is for Tennessee to be in every game they play, much like the 2007 Alabama team. I think that’s how we will measure success in 2018.

The Vols are expected to lose to Georgia and Auburn — those programs are way ahead of where Tennessee’s is right now. But if they keep the score close, and play with them into the fourth quarter, then it means we’re seeing progress. I’m not one for moral victories (Pruitt said it best on Thursday when he said he expects to win every game he coaches), but I’m also not one to live outside of reality.

Next: Jeremy Pruitt Wastes No Time On Recruiting Trail

Tennessee has the talent to play with any team in the conference. It’s up to Pruitt to get the best out of his players.

It’s unfortunate that fans have to go through another rebuild, but at least the future looks bright on Rocky Top.